German Mathematician Predicts The 2026 World Cup Winner

His England reign took some time to get going, as England laboured past Albania (3-0), Latvia (2-0), Andorra (1-0 and 2-0) and were beaten 3-1 by Senegal in a June friendly. The 2026 World Cup will mark the end of an era in French football, with Didier Deschamps set to stand down from his role as Les Bleus’ head coach after 14 years at the helm. He will hope to go out with a bang and cement his legacy as France’s greatest boss. But most of the favourites are set, with Lionel Messi hoping to help Argentina become the first team since Brazil in 1962 to successfully defend their crown. This version of Morocco has the tools to be more proactive against France, but that can be a double-edged sword, facing Les Bleus’ phenomenal attack.

Main Pick – Argentina to Win @ 1/6Argentina have won all five of their recent matches and scored nine goals in three World Cup group fixtures. Cape Verde’s resilient defensive record is notable but was built against opposition that did not carry the same individual quality Argentina bring. At this price the match result offers no value in isolation, so the play is to combine it with a goals line. Elo ratings + XGBoost trained on 50,000+ international matches. The 2026 World Cup will be the broadest, most competitive, and most logistically complex tournament ever staged.

World Cup betting, odds: Betting public heavily backing USMNT against Paraguay

Saturday brings another big day at the FIFA World Cup, with six group-stage matches still to be played before the knockout rounds begin. An each way bet could be the way to go with African nations that you think have a chance, with Morocco starting with odds of 100/1 or better to win the World Cup before the tournament begins. Similarly, tactics tend to play a large role for international teams. Spain for example have always played in a similar way which involves having lots of possession, whilst Italy for example have always been well-known for being resilient defensively. Three teams earn qualification for the FIFA World Cup, and two will bank their spots in the play-off tournament, with Canada, Mexico and the USA automatically entering due to being hosts. Six places are up for grabs for CONMEBOL teams, and it is a single-league format that simply decides which top six teams advance to the FIFA World Cup Finals.

Group K: Portugal and Cristiano Ronaldo Target First in Two-Team Race

Along with the Gold Cup run, a 5-1 win over Uruguay last time out put Pochettino’s critics on notice, and the USA should feel good about their chances of being competitive in the knockout stages. While our model doesn’t deviate too much from the conventional wisdom, we don’t have teams in quite the same order. There are charts showing each team’s chance of winning it all, their most likely opponents at each stage, and precise odds for each game, including the likelihood of particular scores (e.g., Brazil 2-1). France are the favorites to win the World Cup 2026 after a perfect group stage. They swept Group I, the toughest group in the draw, ahead of defending champions Argentina. We are calling a France vs Argentina final, with France lifting the trophy 2-1 on July 19.

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But the prospect of two icons duelling to end the tournament in the lead should be absorbing viewing. It is little surprise, then, that Spain are our predictive model’s early World Cup favourites, going all the way in 17.0% of tournament predictions. From the greatest individual rivalry of the 21st century to the greatest international soccer rivalry of all time. This will be tense, brutal and impossible to take your eyes off.

Despite an underwhelming qualifying campaign, Carlo Ancelotti’s charges remain hot favourites to advance as group winners, with the Atlas Lions expected to settle for a runner-up finish. Colombia also deserve their lofty status in our projections, as they come in the tournament off the back of a run to the final of the 2024 Copa América, having outscored all other teams at that tournament with 12 goals. Mexico, the team that defeated the USA in the Gold Cup final, are the host nation viewed as most likely to shock the world and lift the trophy, with a 1.3% probability. But when the tournament begins, the likelihood is that Ronaldo will hog the headlines, just as he did in Qatar in 2022 and at Euro 2024. At the former tournament, Ronaldo was dropped for a last-16 tie against Switzerland after a series of ineffective displays, and his replacement Gonçalo Ramos scored a hat-trick in a 6-1 win.

Just 18 years old, he is tipped to be the young player of the tournament and already has the ability to spearhead his team to World Cup glory. Austria are narrowly favoured to win, with a 31.2 percent chance of taking all three points, while Algeria are rated at 26.7 percent. Victory would see Algeria win back-to-back World Cup matches for the first time.

• We have covered the seven teams who are most likely to win the tournament, but there are also a few other potential winners.
• At the former tournament, Ronaldo was dropped for a last-16 tie against Switzerland after a series of ineffective displays, and his replacement Gonçalo Ramos scored a hat-trick in a 6-1 win.
• England are another nation with a strong squad, and they will be seeking to avenge their heartache in recent major competitions where they have fallen at the final hurdle or close to it.
• For those who prefer Spanish-language broadcasts, 92 games will be on Telemundo, with the other 12 matches (all simultaneous group finales) on Universo.
• Building a perfect bracket may be unrealistic, but identifying where chaos is most likely, and where elite teams will hold firm, is the key to getting ahead.
• Choose group outcomes, pick the knockout winners and discover who triumphs.
• Their friendly results tell a more mixed story, with a heavy defeat to Bermuda sandwiched around a comfortable win over Serbia.
• There are 12 different groups of four teams in the 2026 World Cup.
• These two met at the same stage of Euro 2024 and Spain won en route to glory.
• France became the sixth team to win the World Cup as hosts in 1998, but no side has accomplished the feat since then.
• With the 48-team format, expect slight dilution — 10–12 top-20 teams likely.

World Cup 2026 Group and Bracket Simulator

• Predictions cover Final Result, Under/Over, Both Teams to Score, Correct Score, xG, Corners, and Ball Possession.
• Here’s exactly how we compute championship odds, group probabilities, and knockout forecasts.
• Ivory Coast arguably should have won all three of their Group E matches after they threw away a 1-0 lead to lose late against Germany, but Emerse Fae’s team have found goals hard to come by.
• Germany are overdue a strong result, and the supercomputer gives them a decent chance of achieving that, as they were finalists in 10.6% of sims.
• Ghana cannot be overlooked, as Antoine Semenyo provides genuine danger, but I expect the European sides to control this group with Ghana likely finishing as one of the best third-place teams.
• Debutants Cape Verde finished second in Group H ahead of two-time champions Uruguay, who were eliminated.
• Don’t be surprised if at least one traditional power exits before the quarter-finals.
• All eyes will be on SoFi Stadium when South Africa and Canada face each other in the World Cup knockout stages.
• Brazil vs Japan – Under normal circumstances, this would be a no-brainer.
• The 2026 FIFA World Cup introduces the most dramatic format change in tournament history, expanding to 48 teams and creating a brand-new bracket structure that reshapes how every round unfolds.

Messi has shown no signs of slowing down, helping Inter Miami reach the Major League Soccer Cup final while contributing a staggering 35 goals and providing 21 assists in MLS action this year. There should be plenty of service for Harry Kane, who is Europe’s most in-form striker, netting 24 goals in 20 matches for Bayern Munich since the start of the season in August. But there is a competitive race for the positions behind the England skipper after Tuchel suggested Jude Bellingham and Phil Foden could not both start, while Cole Palmer’s season has barely got going due to injuries. Messi (13) is one goal ahead of Mbappé, who will surely take possession of the record eventually.

The Socceroos are more likely than not to progress to the knockouts (59.2%) and have a 26.3% chance of reaching the last 16 to match their best-ever performance. These were the knockout stage predictions for TSN expert Dom Farrell. Two of the most talented squads, if not the top two, meet in the tournament semi-final. Spain will draw heavy support, but France’s experience in semi-finals and finals gives them an edge in pressure moments. I expect a tight match, possibly decided in extra time or penalties, with France finding a way through to a third straight final. The 2026 FIFA World Cup introduces the most dramatic format change in tournament history, expanding to 48 teams and creating a brand-new bracket structure that reshapes how every round unfolds.

Group L: Croatia vs England Clash Tops Competitive Final Group

• Forty-eight teams will battle it out for glory in North America, but who will win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
• As Belgium have been raising their form game by game, our prediction points toward a 2-1 home win.
• Of the teams in the bottom quarter of our projections, there are a few standout nations who the system thinks could spring a surprise.
• Paraguay’s best-ever showing at a World Cup came in 2010, when they reached the quarter-finals, but the national side missed out on qualification in 2014, 2018 and 2022.
• It could be a question of who goes furthest of the contenders or who capitalises on weak opponents, and France have a tough group – but with Iraq in it.
• A complete Python pipeline for predicting match outcomes, generatingexpected goals, and running Monte Carlo tournament simulations.Built for YouTube creators who want AI-powered soccer analysis.
• South Africa and Egypt both reached the World Cup knockout rounds for the first time, while Turkiye finished bottom of Group D.
• The tournament has three different hosts, which are Canada, Mexico, and the USA, all three of which will feature in the tournament due to hosting.
• That is helpful to coach Luis de la Fuente given there are doubts over the fitness of Barcelona sensation Lamine Yamal for their initial games as he recovers from a hamstring injury.
• Brazil have dominated this fixture over the years, winning 11 of their 14 previous meetings with Japan and losing only once.
• Colombia are brimming with confidence after recording back-to-back victories over Uzbekistan and DR Congo.
• France will pursue a third straight final and third title overall, while past winners Spain enter as European champions.
• Modrić won the Golden Ball at the 2018 tournament, where Croatia was runner-up to France, and he led the team to a third-place finish in 2022.

We’ve lost big names like Uruguay, Scotland and Türkiye, but all the pre-tournament favorites are still alive and kicking in pursuit of glory across the United States, Canada and Mexico. The teams that can solve different tactical puzzles, manage their energy levels and thrive in hostile conditions usually find themselves going deepest into the competition. Luis de la Fuente and his squad of stars will want to change that and with Cape Verde, Uruguay and Saudi Arabia to come in Group H this summer, reaching the knockouts is unlikely to be a problem. Spain often have a who’s who of title winners from across Europe, and this summer is no different.

You can get daily World Cup 2026 match tips and predictions right here on 1960Tips. Visit our World Cup 2026 predictions today page or our main football predictions page for daily updates throughout the tournament. Fresh match predictions, betting tips, and analysis updated every day throughout the tournament. Here is each team’s probability of winning the World Cup, and advancing to each stage of the knockout round, using an old-school, FiveThirtyEight heatmap format. France’s flawless group stage made them the favorite, Argentina drew the kinder half of the bracket, Norway are the dark horse, and Messi leads the Golden Boot race as the competition’s all-time top scorer. With the Round of 32 underway and this 48-team field wide open, we will update these picks after every round.

• Morocco (1.1%) and Ecuador (1.0%) are the other teams with a greater than 1% chance of glory, with Japan (0.9%) and USA just behind.
• (via FanDuel Sportsbook, subject to change)See full World Cup picks at SportsLine.
• There are many teams who have a shot at winning the 2026 World Cup, with high expectations placed on nations like Argentina, France and Spain, who have all won recent World Cups or major tournaments in recent years.
• While outright victory may be a stretch, a deep run by either CONCACAF nation feels plausible.
• We asked the Opta supercomputer for its predictions before the tournament kicks off on 11 June.
• Colombia also deserve their lofty status in our projections, as they come in the tournament off the back of a run to the final of the 2024 Copa América, having outscored all other teams at that tournament with 12 goals.
• DR Congo head into their final Group K match against Uzbekistan knowing that a win should be enough to secure a place in the World Cup knockout stages.
• Panama are given just an 8.9 percent chance of recording their first-ever World Cup victory, while the probability of them earning a maiden World Cup point stands at 12.6 percent.
• With history on the line, I see France growing complacent, allowing Portugal to seize the moment with a historic 1–0 victory, ending Cristiano Ronaldo’s legendary career with ultimate glory.
• Morocco asked plenty of questions of Brazil during their first game and Japan can present a similar sort of technically proficient, front-footed challenge.
• This knockout matchup is a close one, but Morocco hold the edge.
• A battle of the veterans as Cristiano Ronaldo and Luka Modric, both into their fifth decade, face off for the last time on the big stage.
• Green has studied the 2026 World Cup draw and locked in his best bets and predictions, including his outright winner.
• Semi-finalists in both 2018 and 2022, they are assigned a 1.1% chance of glory – lower than Mexico and Uruguay (1.7%), whose coach Bielsa recently went on a rant in a press conference following speculation over his position.
• In addition to co-hosts Canada, Bosnia & Herzegovina and Qatar will also be vying for a top-two spot in this group, with all three nations seeking a maiden knockout appearance on the grandest international stage.

SOCCER

Anyway, the evidence thus far is that Mbappe scores goals in World Cups. The Opta supercomputer makes Brazil the favourites to reach the next round. Brazil have dominated this fixture over the years, winning 11 of their 14 previous meetings with Japan and losing only once.

Canada also just make it into the top half of the 48 teams (they rank joint 22nd, level with Paraguay and Austria). They are more likely than not (52.0%) to get as far as the last 16 and have a healthy 24.2% chance of making the last eight. There are two other potentially pivotal group clashes to circle on your calendar by the time we reach MD3, as France take on Norway in Foxborough on 26 June, while Colombia battle Portugal in Miami a day later. They won’t have the same surprise factor this time around but still made it to what proved to be a chaotic AFCON final this year and started the month of June sitting a lofty eighth in the FIFA world rankings. Netherlands, Norway, Belgium, Colombia and Morocco should all realistically target a long run and are dark horses to go the distance. Germany are overdue a strong result, and the supercomputer gives them a decent chance of achieving that, as they were finalists in 10.6% of sims.

Colombia vs. Spain

Norway are the dark horse, and Lionel Messi heads the Golden Boot race after becoming the World Cup’s all-time top scorer. Ivory Coast and Norway face each other at AT&T Stadium in what promises to be one of the most entertaining World Cup last-32 clashes, with 2-2 our predicted outcome. Ivory Coast secured their place in the knockout stages with a convincing 2-0 victory over Curacao, where Nicolas Pepe stole the headlines with a brilliant brace. Argentina will look to move one step closer toward their fourth World Cup trophy when they face Cape Verde in the last 32 of the showpiece tournament. As Argentina look unstoppable at the moment, our prediction firmly points toward a 2-0 home win. La Albiceleste arrive in perfect form with a 100% group-stage record, winning all their group matches and conceding just 0.20 goa…

USA’s Path To 2026 World Cup Final: Latest Projected Opponents For Round Of 16 And On

• This has all of the makings of a very, very interesting match, and we have found it difficult to pick a winner here.
• These were the knockout stage predictions for TSN expert Dom Farrell.
• Mexico vs Best 3rd place Group C/E/F/H/I – Since suffering a quarter-final elimination on home soil in 1986, Mexico have reached the round of 16 in seven of their eight World Cup appearances.
• Croatia recovered to take second in England’s group, pushing Ghana to a third-place spot.
• Spain and Austria go head-to-head in the World Cup last 32 with La Roja looking to move one step closer towards their second trophy at the showpiece tournament.
• Moreover, with international tournaments and matches being played so sparingly, being able to get over the line and win trophies can play a huge role in deciding the winners of major tournaments like the World Cup.
• Mexico will need an all‑around effort to advance under the new knockout format, relying on far more than home support to reach the next round.
• The World Cup kicks off on June 11 – but who will lift the trophy after the final on July 19?
• Brazil have struggled to define a clear identity in recent tournaments, raising doubts about their ability to make a legitimate World Cup run.
• Germany arguably played some of the best football at Euro 2024, ranking second for average possession (62.5%) and goals scored (11), but Nagelsmann has plenty of selection dilemmas to consider.
• Belgium should control this group, but the remaining positions are harder to predict.
• Iran captain Mehdi Taremi accused FIFA of failing to address logistical problems facing his team at the World Cup after Friday’s 1-1 draw with Egypt.
• Here are Paul Carr’s power rankings of all 48 teams in the 2026 World Cup, separated into five distinct tiers.

Canada reached the last 16 thanks to a hard-fought 1-0 win over South Africa, with Stephen Eustaquio scoring the dec… The favoured teams, however, are France and Spain, with England deemed to have a strong chance as well. France will pursue a third straight final and third title overall, while past winners Spain enter as European champions. It was Spain’s victory over England in the Euro 2024 final that heralded the end of Gareth Southgate’s time leading the Three Lions, ushering in Thomas Tuchel’s reign.

Knockouts

Norway came through the toughest group in their first World Cup since 1998, Colombia won Group K, Morocco backed up their 2022 run, and Japan again showed they can beat anyone. None of the three co-hosts are favorites, but all three reached the knockouts and all three have a real story to tell. Lionel Messi made history in the group stage, overtaking Miroslav Klose as the World Cup’s all-time leading scorer. He is the front-runner for the 2026 Golden Boot, with France’s Kylian Mbappe and Norway’s Erling Haaland the closest challengers.

• Green has studied the 2026 World Cup draw and locked in his best bets and predictions, including his outright winner.
• There are many teams who have a shot at winning the 2026 World Cup, with high expectations placed on nations like Argentina, France and Spain, who have all won recent World Cups or major tournaments in recent years.
• 1960Tips.com has been the trusted destination for free football predictions, expert VIP picks, and sports betting analysis since 2017.
• With history on the line, I see France growing complacent, allowing Portugal to seize the moment with a historic 1–0 victory, ending Cristiano Ronaldo’s legendary career with ultimate glory.
• (via FanDuel Sportsbook, subject to change)See full World Cup picks at SportsLine.
• While outright victory may be a stretch, a deep run by either CONCACAF nation feels plausible.
• Colombia also deserve their lofty status in our projections, as they come in the tournament off the back of a run to the final of the 2024 Copa América, having outscored all other teams at that tournament with 12 goals.
• Given the number of top-class players in Roberto Martinez’s team, our prediction leans toward a 2-1 home win.
• Semi-finalists in both 2018 and 2022, they are assigned a 1.1% chance of glory – lower than Mexico and Uruguay (1.7%), whose coach Bielsa recently went on a rant in a press conference following speculation over his position.
• DR Congo head into their final Group K match against Uzbekistan knowing that a win should be enough to secure a place in the World Cup knockout stages.
• Lionel Messi, finally crowned world champion, was named Player of the Tournament in what many consider the greatest World Cup final ever played.

Belgium vs Senegal Picks, Tips, Odds & Best Bets: 2026 World Cup Round of 32

Norway will be the team nobody wishes to draw from Pot 3, having steamrolled their way through the UEFA qualifiers with a perfect eight wins and 37 goals – the most of any team. Eleven of the tournament’s venues are in the USA, and Mauricio Pochettino’s side are assigned a 0.9% chance of going all the way. They will be placed in Group D, with two of their first-round games taking place in Los Angeles and the other in Seattle. Ancelotti was only in charge for the final five games of their campaign, but less than eight months into his reign, he has already overseen surprise defeats to Bolivia and Japan, as well as poor draws with Ecuador and Tunisia. Germany arguably played some of the best football at Euro 2024, ranking second for average possession (62.5%) and goals scored (11), but Nagelsmann has plenty of selection dilemmas to consider.

But if France make the quarter-finals (they did so in 47.9% of sims), they then start to fare increasingly better in our projections. Ultimately, they made the final 21.3% of the time and emerged as the second-likeliest victors. If a team wants to win the World Cup this summer, they will likely have to overcome a formidable obstacle in Spain. Cape Verde have qualified for the first time and are among 10 countries from Africa, while the three co-hosts make up half of six teams from the CONCACAF region. U.S. President Donald Trump and FIFA chief Gianni Infantino will present the winning country with the trophy in East Rutherford, New Jersey when the competition concludes with the World Cup final on 19 July.

World Cup 2026 Predictions: Who Are the Favourites?

There are no major injury concerns for either side, with both managers expected to field their strongest available lineups. Norway, meanwhile, is making its first World Cup appearance since France 1998 and has looked every bit like a dangerous dark horse. Both nations are chasing a place in the last 16, but only one will keep their World Cup dream alive. Leading the way is France with a chance of 18.66%, putting Les Bleus marginally ahead of Argentina’s 16.26%. As the round of 32 prepares to get underway on Sunday, the cogs of the Opta supercomputer have been whirring to rate every team’s chances of glory. (via FanDuel Sportsbook, subject to change)See full World Cup picks at SportsLine.

World Cup Day 2 What to Watch: The United States and Canada start their tournaments

Jamiro Monteiro and Garry Rodrigues add craft in midfield, and manager Aguas is expected to name a similar side to the one that earned three draws through the group phase. For the co-hosts, Canada sits lowest in the rankings at 0.47%, with Mexico up at 1.81%. The USMNT leads the way once again at 2.45%, but there are 10 teams seen as more likely winners.

Paraguay vs France Prediction

The most comprehensive World Cup 2026 predictions resource available. All 12 groups, outright winner analysis, Golden Boot picks, dark horse teams, and daily tips throughout the 38-day tournament from 11 June to 19 July 2026. All eyes will be on Estadio BBVA when the Netherlands and Morocco face each other in a highly-anticipated World Cup showdown. As the two teams seem to be evenly matched ahead of this round 32 clash, our prediction leans toward a 1-1 draw. The Netherlands produced a series of convincing displays in Group F, defeating both Sweden and Tunisia while sharing the spoils with Japan…

Wednesday, June 24

Their route to this World Cup was not completely smooth, either, as they were left needing victory over Slovakia in their final Group A game to avoid the play-offs. But they won that match by a statement 6-0 scoreline, with Nick Woltemade, Serge Gnabry and Leroy Sané among the goals. Germany are the supercomputer’s fifth favourites with a 7.1% chance of winning a record-equalling fifth World Cup. The only one other team assigned more than a one-in-10 chance of becoming world champions is England, who are out to end 60 years of hurt at major tournaments. With a 14.1% chance, France are the supercomputer’s second favourites, just behind Spain, who beat them 5-4 in the semi-finals of the UEFA Nations League in June. Ahead of this week’s draw, we have taken a deep dive into the Opta supercomputer’s first set of World Cup predictions to assess who is most likely to lift the trophy.

• The Sporting News is tracking the favourites to win and best betting offers including 50/1 for a goal to be scored in England vs. Congo and 40/1 for Harry Kane to have a shot in the match.
• Argentina, meanwhile, remain built for high-pressure knockout matches and possess an edge in composure and quality.
• A true David vs Goliath clash awaits as already-eliminated Jordan take on tournament favourites Argentina in their final Group J fixture, with 0-3 our predicted outcome.
• Ivory Coast secured their place in the knockout stages with a convincing 2-0 victory over Curacao, where Nicolas Pepe stole the headlines with a brilliant brace.
• Create a free account only when you want to save your bracket or join the prediction league.
• For full predictions on points, goals and assists, check out our 2026 World Cup Team Projections.
• Portugal enter the tournament as legitimate title contenders for good reason.
• His focus tends to lean toward how the team sets up, where things break down, and what needs to change to get back to where Juventus belongs in the European conversation.
• Build a bracket, make your picks, or just check today’s scores.
• However, history is unlikely to repeat itself this time around, at least for the back-to-back World Cup finalists.
• Croatia are another team whose best days may be behind them but can never be ruled out.

They fared slightly better with our model than the other first-timers Curaçao and Jordan (both 0.04%). If previous World Cups are anything to go by, shocks and surprises should be a given, so all those teams will still be dreaming of a deep run. They must get past Northern Ireland and potentially Wales to make it, with both of those sides hoping to join fellow home nations England and Scotland.

World Cup Best Bets, Odds & Futures

The FIFA World Cup is one of the most highly-anticipated football events and commands enormous betting interest from players. Played every four years, teams battle it out for the Jules Rimet trophy and to have their name etched in history as World Cup winners. This knockout matchup is a close one, but Morocco hold the edge.

Cricket and boxing are his other major sporting passions and he has covered the likes of Anthony Joshua, Tyson Fury, Wladimir Klitschko, Gennadiy Golovkin and Vasyl Lomachenko live from ringside. Two teams who might not have expected to finish top of their groups. Colombia have not conceded in their past two matches and had the better of their goalless draw against Portugal. Nestor Lorenzo’s team look a world cup qualifiers 2026 little more battle hardened and should edge through. DR Congo clinched its first-ever spot in the World Cup knockout stage, and with that, the nation was rewarded with England.

World Cup record watch

Our World Cup 2026 predictions land on France beating Argentina 2-1 in the July 19 final at New York New Jersey Stadium, a rematch of 2022. France and Argentina are the most likely finalists, sitting on opposite halves of the bracket. Spain and Brazil are the strongest challengers, though Spain would have to get past Argentina in the semifinals to reach the final on July 19. France are the form pick after winning Group I with three wins from three, beating Senegal, Iraq and Norway. Argentina are the closest challenger and sit on the opposite half of the bracket, setting up a possible repeat of the 2022 final.

• South Africa (0.1%) are the joint 37th likeliest winners of the World Cup but still have a healthy 49.3% chance of making the knockouts, helped by being in a group where co-hosts Mexico are the top seeds.
• Before locking in any Brazil vs. Japan picks or World Cup 2026 predictions, you need to see what proven soccer expert Jon Eimer has to say.
• Ivory Coast arguably should have won all three of their Group E matches after they threw away a 1-0 lead to lose late against Germany, but Emerse Fae’s team have found goals hard to come by.
• France’s flawless group stage made them the favorite, Argentina drew the kinder half of the bracket, Norway are the dark horse, and Messi leads the Golden Boot race as the competition’s all-time top scorer.
• They will be placed in Group D, with two of their first-round games taking place in Los Angeles and the other in Seattle.
• All eyes will be on SoFi Stadium when South Africa and Canada face each other in the World Cup knockout stages.
• That triumph remains Three Lions’ biggest win in tournament history.
• Deschamps also lifted the trophy as a player when he was captain in 1998, and this World Cup will be the first for Mbappé as France skipper.
• Debutants Cape Verde finished second in Group H ahead of two-time champions Uruguay, who were eliminated.
• Ghana cannot be overlooked, as Antoine Semenyo provides genuine danger, but I expect the European sides to control this group with Ghana likely finishing as one of the best third-place teams.
• Germany are overdue a strong result, and the supercomputer gives them a decent chance of achieving that, as they were finalists in 10.6% of sims.

Ivory Coast arguably should have won all three of their Group E matches after they threw away a 1-0 lead to lose late against Germany, but Emerse Fae’s team have found goals hard to come by. The same cannot be said of Norway and their rested and refreshed talisman Erling Haaland. Get expert predictions for every match, updated daily throughout the tournament. They face Ghana and could reach the quarterfinals without meeting a top seed. Debutants Cape Verde finished second in Group H ahead of two-time champions Uruguay, who went home. South Africa and Egypt both reached the World Cup knockout rounds for the first time, while Turkiye finished bottom of Group D.

For the first time in World Cup history, the winners and runners-up of each group will be joined in the knockout round of 32 by the eight best third-placed teams. The placement of each team will affect whom they face in the knockout round. The Round of 32 began on June 28, 2026 and runs through July 3. The expanded 48-team format added this extra knockout round for the first time, sending 32 of the 48 teams into single-elimination ties before the Round of 16. Debutants Cape Verde finished second in Group H ahead of two-time champions Uruguay, who were eliminated.

Now that there are 12 groups instead of eight, it’s hard to find a Group of Death with four exceptionally strong teams. There are 12 different groups of four teams in the 2026 World Cup. Here’s the breakdown on all of them, including what you need to know about each team. Gabriel Avalos has only scored twice in 25 appearances for his country, but there is again set to be a spot in the final third of the field for the 34-year-old.

One World Cup player to watch from each of the five favourite teams

Ahead of the FIFA World Cup 2026 draw on Friday 5 December, the Opta supercomputer has produced its early predictions for this summer’s tournament in North America. He previously worked as fan brands editor for Manchester City at Reach Plc. Prior to that, he built more than a decade of experience in the sports journalism industry, primarily for the Stats Perform and Press Association news agencies.